Who will win Punjab in this election? Congress, SAD, AAP, BJP, Punjab Lok Congress, BSP, or farmers’ SSM
on February 20, 2022, Punjab will decide its CM. Seven parties will dash with each other to take the win. The old giant – Congress, the Oldest Party of Punjab – SAD, a Delhi-Centric Party trying to expand its base – AAP, a Pro-Hindu Party – BJP, Ex – CMs Party – Punjab Lok Congress, A Dalit-Centric Party – BSP, and finally a party of Famers – SSM will contest to win the position.
The 117 seats of Punjab will see a huge fight. In the last few years, Punjab has seen youngsters dying because of Drugs, Farmers committing Suicide, Dalits being beaten up to death, unemployment, corruption, and Terrorism.
Dozens of questions surround the political pundits: Will AAP make a historical win this time? Will the SAD BSP alliance come back to power? Will Congress be able to win? How will BJP perform in the elections?
Let’s Answer all the questions One by One!
Who will win Punjab in this election of 2022?
It will be for sure a hung assembly. After analyzing all the pre-poll results, it can be seen that not a single political party is getting a majority (59 seats). According to some surveys done last year, AAP got 65+ seats, Congress got 20+ seats, and SAD with 10-15 seats. Now the situation has changed. According to ‘Janta Ka Mood’, AAP is getting 36-39 seats, Congress with 35-38 seats, SAD-BSP with 32-35 seats, BJP with 4-7 seats, and rest with SSM and others.
Why such a change?
Congress saw a giant rift. Captain Amrinder Singh, who got the Jat Sikh Votes and Hindu Votes for Congress in 2017, left the party. Navjot Sidhu is fighting for his CM candidature, and Charanjit Singh Channi was appointed CM. A Dalit CM was appointed for the first time. It was hard for Sidhu to digest Channi’s growing popularity. In his government that lasted for 111 days, Channi announced populist demands with a memorable tagline “Ghar Ghar Vich Challi Gall, Channi karda Masle Hall.” Sidhu was lost from the whole picture. At the same time, AAP has announced Bhagwant Mann as their CM candidate. The opponents of Bhagwant Mann call him an alcoholic person and therefore call him an unstable candidate to control Punjab. Indeed, many people inside AAP do not like him. AAP also saw many internal fights as many candidates alleged that AAP sold tickets. Akali Dal is finding it hard to answer people on the Sacrilege Issue of 2015, the drug issue, especially the case of Majithia.
BJP is now new into the picture after they announced the repeal of 3 farm Bills. BJP is playing heavily on the National Security Issue with Captain’s face. With PM’s convoy stopped in Punjab, BJP and Captain Amrinder Singh made it a huge issue and asking votes on this. So, BJP and its alliance will try to stop AAP and Congress from winning and reaching the majority mark. Indeed a vote cutter.
Will the 2017 Results Repeat in 2022?
Punjab is made of 3 regions: The dominant Malwa, the smaller Majha, and the Doaba region sandwiched in both the regions. It is an old saying that Wins Malwa, Wins Punjab Elections. Malwa has 69 seats out of 117 seats. Last time, Congress won 40 seats in Malwa. So, who will win Malwa this time?
The significant seats of the Malwa region are Ludhiana (North, South, East, West, Central), Moga, Jalalabad, Fazilka, Bathinda, and Patiala. It is a region dominated by Farmers and Businessmen. The Industrialists people in business are fed up with Congress’s policies. The MSME Industry has crashed, especially during COVID-19. Due to exorbitant electricity rates, most industries have been shut down and shifted to Baddi in Himachal Pradesh. So, either AAP or Akali Dal will benefit in this region. SAD always wins Seats like Jalalabad Lambi. But Kejriwal and AAP’s high popularity in this region, especially in Ludhiana. So, we can expect AAP to get a good response from Malwa.
AAP : 31-33 seats
SAD: 25-28 seats
Congress: 10-12 seats
THE MAJHA and DOABA REGION OF PUNJAB
These regions have the highest population of Dalits. Ravidassia Sikhs, Ramdassia Sikhs, Mazhabi Sikhs, OBCs, Valmikis, and the highest number of Deras. With Congress going safe with Charanjit Singh Channi’s face as CM (according to some sources), the aim is to woo the Dalit voters. For the first time, Akali Dal bid adieu to its former Alliance BJP and shook hands with Pan – India Dalit Party – BSP. The new alliance has already announced that their deputy CM will be a Dalit. It was BSP who had a stronghold over the Ad -Dharmi movement of Punjab but lost its contact with Dalits. Dalit atrocities have increased in the past few years, Safai Karamcharis are begging to get regularised, and ultimately, the Dalits want respect. They are landless, unemployed, and therefore want a change. Therefore, here we can see Congress performing better.
Another twist in the picture is Bikram Majithia’s contest against Navjot Singh Sidhu from Amritsar East. He is also known as ‘Majhe Da Jarnail.’ Bikram Majithia from SAD has excellent popularity in the Majha region. Nevertheless, at the same time, AAP also has excellent popularity in the urban areas of Majha. So, my expectations from these two regions are :
Majha Region :
SAD : 9-10
AAP : 7-8
Congress : 8-9
SAD : 9-11
Congress : 7-8
AAP : 3-4
BJP : 1-2
Who will win Punjab in this election By Ritwik Mehta
Ritwik Mehta is the founder of NITI TANTRA – a Youth-Led Policy Think Tank.